The semiconductor blockade turned into a bargaining chip in 2026. What changed, who pays for it, and what it means for AI supply chains.
In August 2024 I published a piece on the microchip war built on one assumption everyone shared at the time: export controls were a wall. The United States would deny China advanced compute; China would race to catch up; the wall would hold or it would not. Two years later that assumption is dead. The wall has a cash register.
Since August 2025, Nvidia and AMD hand the US government 15% of their China chip revenue in exchange for export licenses. Since November 2025, China has suspended, not repealed, its harshest rare earth export rules, on a one-year timer that expires on November 10, 2026. Washington approves chips that Beijing then blocks at customs. Semiconductors stopped being a wall and became a currency: something both sides mint, price, and trade for concessions.